The demand for rail transit castings in each sector is expected to be uneven in 2018

With the global economic development and industrial recovery, the boom cycle of the rail transit industry is in a new round of rising stage. In today's energy crisis and increasing pressure on environmental protection, green rail transit will become the world's preferred mode of transportation, and the rail transit industry will open a new chapter of rapid development in the world.

There are many types of rail transit castings, accounting for about 5% of the total castings in my country. Related products are mainly mechanical transmission gearboxes, high-power diesel engines, bogie bolsters and side frames, frames, vibration damping devices, coupler buffers, traction motors, and disc type systems that are required for the fields of locomotives, freight cars, EMUs and urban rail equipment. The key load-bearing parts such as the moving device, brake caliper, axle box, etc., the product has high technical requirements and difficult manufacturing. It is mainly small and medium-sized parts. The casting materials and methods are diverse. The safety and reliability of the product are directly related to the public Driving safety. This shows that the importance of castings in the rail transit industry is self-evident. industry is self-evident.

According to the statistical analysis of the Rail Transit Casting Branch of the China Foundry Association, it is expected that in 2018, the market demand for rail transit castings will still be in an unbalanced state. At present, the domestic passenger transport sector is increasingly relying on high-speed rail EMUs, and the demand for trucks and locomotives is driven by the macro economy and freight volume. With the increase in subway mileage, the demand for subway vehicles has increased year by year, ushering in a blowout. The specific analysis is as follows:

EMU segment: market demand has an upward turning point

In 2016, the number of tenders for EMUs was only 110 standard trains. From January to November 2017, China Railway Corporation tendered 205 standard trains, an increase of 86.4% year-on-year. This was mainly due to the stimulus of the “Belt and Road” policy and continued to drive overseas orders increase. In 2017, companies that mainly produce EMU-related castings were extremely busy. For example, CRRC Qishuyan Locomotive and Rolling Stock Technology Research Institute Co., Ltd. EMU aluminum gearbox ushered in the historical peak, Zhuzhou Jiufang, which mainly produces traction motor castings Foundry Co., Ltd. is always working hard to complete the order.

In terms of the future development situation, the newly-added EMU mileage has bottomed out and the operation density has increased, and EMU demand has ushered in an upward turning point. In 2016, the state issued the "Medium and Long-term Railway Network Plan". It is planned that China's high-speed railway mileage will reach more than 30,000 kilometers by 2020, and my country's high-speed railway mileage will reach more than 38,000 kilometers by 2025. From the perspective of construction progress, my country's new high-speed rail mileage will increase rapidly in the next three years compared to 17 years. Among them, 2017 was a low point, and it started to increase rapidly in 2018, driving the demand for rail transit equipment to bottom out. At that time, the demand for casting products such as transmission gearboxes, couplers and buffers, brake discs, clamps, axle boxes, positioning arms, traction motors, etc. will rebound rapidly.

In addition, the acceleration of investment in intercity railways has become one of the main driving forces for the growth of EMU demand. According to the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Transport issued the "Integrated Transportation Network Plan for Urbanization Areas" in December 2015, by 2020, my country will build approximately 8,000 kilometers of intercity railways, covering 98% of node cities and nearly 60% of counties. (city). If calculated according to the operating density of 0.9 EMUs per kilometer, the demand for EMUs brought by the newly added 8,000-km intercity railway is 7,200, corresponding to 900 standard trains, and the average annual demand is 180 standard trains. What cannot be ignored is that the launch of R&D of freight trains is expected to become an important increase in the demand for electric trains in the future.

Urban rail and subway: expected to grow by more than 20%

As the subway mileage increases year by year, the demand for subway vehicles will also increase year by year, and it is expected to maintain a growth of more than 20% in 2017. Railroad subways, light rails, monorails, urban express rails, magnetic levitation, modern trams, etc. are booming, and the market demand for gearboxes, brake discs, traction motors and other castings has greatly increased.

Truck segment: officially announced the recovery of the market

In 2016, a total of 25,272 trucks were tendered, officially announcing the recovery of the truck market. On January 19, 2017, the China Railway Corporation launched the largest truck bidding since its establishment, with the number of trucks reaching 40,000, an increase of 58% compared to the entire year of 2016. This tender purchases 20,000 NX70A shared flat cars and X70 special container flat cars. At present, the Rail Transit Casting Branch is dominated by truck parts manufacturers, and large-scale truck orders have brought vitality to many member units.

Locomotive sector: Tendering and delivery volume increased significantly

In 2016, due to the slowdown in the bidding process in railways, only more than 100 locomotives were delivered throughout the year. In 2017, as the bidding and delivery of trucks increased, the demand for locomotives also increased significantly. According to statistics, on January 26, 2017, the China Railway Corporation issued a bidding announcement for a one-time bidding of 586 passenger and freight electric locomotives, including 495 freight electric locomotives and 91 passenger electric locomotives. On November 3, 2017, China Railway Corporation invited a tender for a 160km/h (6 axle 7200kW) AC drive passenger electric locomotive. On December 11, 2017, CRRC Qishuyan Co. and China Railway Corporation signed a 4400 horsepower AC drive shunting diesel locomotive. The purchase contract, the model is HXN5B, the quantity is 30 units. Locomotive and low-speed passenger car parts casting companies whose main business is locomotive mechanical transmission gearboxes, traction motor castings, brake discs, etc. are also ushering in a respite.

Based on the current situation, the rail transportation equipment industry will continue to grow by 15% to 20% in the next 3 to 5 years. The annual increment of EMUs is expected to remain at 300 to 400 for a long time, and the annual market size is 60 to 80 billion yuan. The EMUs require about 2560 tons of castings each year.

It is estimated that there will be an average demand of 70,000 to 80,000 railway trains. Based on an average of 6 tons of supporting castings per truck, 480,000 tons of castings are needed every year. The annual demand for locomotives is estimated to be 700 to 1,000. Based on the average use of 10 tons of supporting castings per railway locomotive, the railway locomotive industry needs about 10,000 tons of castings per year.

The number of railway passenger cars (carriage) is expected to maintain a 4% growth, and the annual demand is expected to be about 7,000. Based on the average use of 1.5 tons of supporting castings per railway passenger car, the railway passenger car industry needs 10,500 tons of castings per year.

In the next 5 years, urban rail transit will usher in a blowout, and it is expected to maintain a continuous growth of 2500 to 3000 vehicles per year for a long period of time. Based on the average use of 1.5 tons of supporting castings per urban rail vehicle, the annual demand for castings for urban rail vehicles is expected 4500 tons.

2018: Focus on overcoming the following technical difficulties

In terms of technological innovation, rail transit casting companies will focus on the following tasks in 2018:

First, CRRC has established a casting expert group to jointly tackle key problems in the development and production of rail transit castings. In terms of casting simulation technology, it is planned to organize joint seminars to make the prediction of defects more comprehensive and reliable. From the traditional analysis of shrinkage and porosity, to the analysis of external defects such as slag inclusion, cracks, and cold barriers, it can even predict gold. Phase structure and mechanical properties, and finally evaluate the product performance. In terms of waste sand treatment of steel castings, it is planned to jointly carry out more in-depth technical research to promote the solution of the circulating water problem in the wet regeneration process of sodium silicate sand for rail transit steel castings and the residual sodium (Na) problem of dry regeneration. The problem of the use rate of used sand for the integral core of steel parts, the problem of the sand-iron ratio of various thin-walled castings in rail transit, and the expansion of the application range of coated sand casting and lost foam casting in rail transit steel castings.

Second, the combination of 3D printing technology and traditional casting technology. 3D printing can quickly realize the process from design to product, reduce intermediate links, accelerate product development cycles, and reduce costs. It is especially suitable for rapid development of single new products or small batches of complex castings. The main areas of attack are: one is to directly sinter coated sand or ceramic powder to make sand molds or sand cores for gravity or low pressure casting; the other is to sinter polymer plastics or paraffin materials and quickly manufacture metal parts through investment casting.

Third, the development and application of new materials for cast steel and cast iron. In terms of new cast steel materials and processes, in view of the inertial quality problems of cargo coupler hooks and knuckles, it is necessary to focus on the development of high-strength and tough cast steel materials and manufacturing processes; for construction machinery wear-resistant cast steel parts such as rake plates, ramming With the characteristics of low wear resistance of wear-resistant parts such as picks, it is urgent to develop new types of high wear resistance and high toughness cast steel materials and develop new types of high wear resistance cast steel materials to improve the wear resistance and service life of wear products; Group cast steel brake discs and other key cast steel parts have low requirements for inclusions and gas content in the casting body, carry out research on the purification technology of intermediate frequency furnace molten steel and the preparation process of high-purity steel materials to reduce the gas and inclusions in the molten steel In the development of new cast iron materials and processes, develop new cast iron materials and manufacturing processes, develop new high-performance ductile iron materials, and broaden its application range; develop new types of low temperature and high resistance Performance ductile iron materials and manufacturing processes, improve the service performance of low-temperature-resistant ductile iron parts, and broaden their application fields; research on the mechanical properties and use performance of various alloyed cast irons, which not only expands the application range of cast iron materials, but also replaces various Rail transit steel castings provide basic support.

Fourth, research on higher-strength aluminum alloy castings and high-strength magnesium alloy materials. With the development of rail transit equipment in the direction of high speed, energy saving, safety and comfort, higher requirements are put forward on the performance and quality of cast aluminum alloy products, and the high strength and elongation of alloys are increasingly pursued while being lightweight. . However, due to the poor performance of the casting process, the application of high-strength and tough cast Al-Cu alloys and magnesium alloys in the field of rail transit is still almost blank. In 2018, it is necessary to improve the casting performance and new features of Al-Cu alloy materials and magnesium alloy materials. Breakthroughs have been made in two aspects of casting technology.

Fifth, the research and development of aluminum-based composite brake materials. Aluminum-based composite materials have high specific strength, specific rigidity, excellent high-temperature mechanical properties, low expansion coefficient and excellent wear resistance, and have a very wide range of application prospects in rail transit, aviation, aerospace, automotive and other industrial fields. The current hot spot in the research of metal matrix composites is also a new direction for the development of cast aluminum alloys. The brake discs for rail transit made of aluminum alloy composite materials can reduce weight by 50% to 60%, reduce inertial force, increase braking acceleration, increase heat conduction speed, reduce wear, and improve Improve the performance of the brake disc. At present, CRRC Qishuyan Research Institute is cooperating with the Australian Science and Industry Organization to conduct research on aluminum-based composite brake discs for rail transit.

Sixth, in the face of the increasingly severe pollution control by the Ministry of Environmental Protection and the increased awareness and high standard requirements of various mainframe customers for high-speed rail, coupled with rising raw material prices, rail transit casting companies must continue to deepen lean management in 2018 and gather strength Improve quality and efficiency. Continue to implement green casting and intelligent manufacturing, promote the transformation and upgrading of smelting, pouring, polishing, surface treatment station equipment and facilities, implement refined process control and on-site lean management, establish a casting defect risk prevention system, optimize and balance quality costs, Create the brand value of rail transit castings.